Day ahead spot price forecasts
Day ahead electriciy spot price forecasts for seven days ahead.
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Over 35 fundamental and other energy market forecasts as input to the spot price forecast
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The probabilistic forecast to better identify price spikes
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Our unique forecasts models have outperformed other commercial forecasts in our customers comparison, especially during high prices and peaks.
Accurate spot price forecasts to make better decisions.
We have revolutionised electricity price forecasting by combining machine learning with electricity market intelligence and fundamentals.
Our model is more robust to the increasing complexity of the electricity market than the traditional simulation models that have been most commonly used.
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Customer-praised user interface
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API interface for all forecasts
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Excel export
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New forecasts every day
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Upper and lower limit forecasts
Forecast price areas
New price areas coming soon
Supported pricing areas:
Finland
Coming soon:
Sweden (SE3)
Coming later:
Sweden (SE4, SE2, SE1)
Norway
Denmark
Coming later:
EE, LV, LT
Coming later
"You have clearly been able to bring something new to the forecasting market and in our experience this approach seems to be very competitive in forecasting electricity prices."
How is the forecast formed?
The forecasting model reacts flexibly to different situations in the electricity market. The model uses weather forecasts, the status of power plants and transmission links, fuel prices, the hydropower, and several other variables as input data.
The forecasting model uses a wide range of data from European bidding zones. The implementation is based on non-machine learning heuristics in addition to machine learning.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often are spot forecasts published?
Currently, the latest forecast is updated five times a day, every day. After the publication of spot prices for the next electricity market day, the schedule for new forecasts is as follows (Finnish time)
1. at approx. 16:002. at 21:00
3. at 07.00
4. at 10.00
5. at 11.00
We have the possibility to update the forecasts more frequently if customer needs require it.
What bidding zones do you cover?
Currently we cover Finnish bidding zone. We aim to cover all bidding zones in Europe in the future. Starting in the Nordics and Baltics first.
The short-term roadmap includes the Swedish and Baltic bidding areas.
How is the probability forecast generated and what is it based on?
Our probabilistic forecast is generated by applying random changes to our model and running the forecast thousands of times, and applying a quantile dependent loss function.
The input data for all forecasts is the same, which means that the high, low, and median values represent the internal uncertainty of the model, not the uncertainty of external variables.
The low and high values represent 10, and 90 percentiles during training, but this does not take into account external uncertainties. In practice, the low and high values represent typically 25 and 75 percentiles for the first forecast day.
What data sources does the forecasts use?
- Weather observations and forecasts
- Urgent Market Messages (UMM's) related to transmission, production and consumption unavailabilities.
- Fuel prices
- Hydrological situation
- Actual production of certain production types
- Production and transmission capacities
- A subset of the Flow Based transmission domain in the Nordics, as published by the Joint Allocation Office (JAO)
What period does the forecast cover and in what resolution?
Our current forecast length is 7 days, starting from the last known day ahead price. The forecast resolution is currently 1 hour. After the introduction of 15 minute market time unit, we aim to provide a 15 minute resolution forecast.